San Diego and Detroit Make Strange Bedfellows

by Roberta Murphy

Say what?

San Diego Map

In 2004, San Diego real estate was ranked as the least affordable in the United States. Thousands of San Diegans, priced out of the coastal market, moved to Temecula, Murietta and other outlying and inland areas where homes were more affordable.

These days, according to the National Association of Homebuilders, San Diego has slipped to 16th place in California, with an improved 10.1 percent affordability for median income earners. That is just a whisper above San Bernardino-Riverside and Ontario Counties 10.2 percent.

This is phenomenal news, because San Bernardino County has traditionally been home to some of the most affordable real estate in California and few might have imagined that coastal San Diego would approach the Inland Empires affordability levels.

In searching for a market bottom, San Diego has now tied with Detroit in ranking third in the nation for dropping home prices, sharing a staggering 9.6 percent drop in pricing during the past year. This is according to a recent Standard & Poor/Case-Schiller study just reported in the San Diego Union Tribune.

All of this might lead one to think that the San Diego economy is in the same tank as Detroit, or that it has lost its perfect balmy climate and turned into a windy high desert.

But that just aint so.

And I dont know of any period in recent history when San Diego real estate has been compared to Detroits.

By my calculations, something is maladjusted when San Diego real estate has nearly the same affordability level as that in San Bernardino or Riverside Counties and has the same drop in home prices as depressed Detroit. This occurs despite San Diegos strong economy, low unemployment, and being a premier destination for tourists and affluent international retirees.

Bubble bloggers and others may take aim at me for this prediction, but I believe the bottom of the San Diego real estate market is near.

After all, when San Diego gets thrown into the same tub with Detroit and San Bernardino, we just might have a perfect example of the baby being thrown out with the bathwater.

This article has 6 Comments

  1. Well we moved from San Diego eight years ago because we couldn’t afford to buy a home, and there was no way we were moving to Otay to afford one.

    Is the comparison you mention just a percentage of affordability or are they using actually dollars amounts to compare the different cities?

    You know Wisconsin is taxing properties additional if they have any kind of view, which I believe is ridiculous. Does San Diego tax for climate? 🙂

  2. I am planning on buying a home in San Diego and this certainly is a good news for all potential buyers. I have been following all market news on San Diego for sometime. In fact, I have already started my search online. As I believe that before going for any deal, one should look for all available options present in the market. I have used the resortscape.com ( http://www.resortscape.com/default.aspx?ct=r&q=&utm_medium=linktous&utm_source=PT ) to do my search and it was really good using the search portal.

  3. Jennifer:

    San Diego does not tax for view or location of a home; only for the price of a home. Thankfully, for new San Diego taxpayers, those prices have been dropping.

    Perhaps you should consider a move back to the San Diego Paradise?

  4. Rebecca:

    The San Diego real estate market has never been more favorable for buyers–at least in mid-term memory. Prices for San Diego real estate are soft, and we are starting to see multiple offers on well-priced San Diego County homes.

    If you would like to search a local San Diego MLS site, just go to: http://www.SanDiegoPreviews.com

    Best wishes,

    Roberta

  5. Roberta – trust me, I would LOVE to move back, but my husband has made it clear he is quite happy to be living in Minnesota where he can see a local hockey game any day of the week. We lived downtown and our apartment overlooked the bay, downtown, and we had a great view of Coronado. If we had stuck around, the ballpark would also have been part of the view. Sigh…and I could use the winter weather there just about now.

  6. Jennifer:

    If it is any comfort to you, San Diego is bracing for a big winter storm this weekend. Waves are cresting at 18 to 20 feet and big rains are anticipated–along with heavy snowfall in local mountains.

    It will be the best of both worlds for surfers and skiers:-)

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