by Roberta Murphy

Last Thursday, I had the opportunity to sit across from Bob Dyson at his office in Del Mar and listen to this real estate legend discuss today’s real estate market. We were also fortunate to have Chris Dyson videotaping much of the discussion, which we have divided into four segments.

At the start of our interview, Bob Dyson said these are the worst conditions he has seen during his 40 years in the real estate business–citing symptoms such as lack of buyer confidence and the drastic deflation in certain real estate markets–including California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida.

The causes stem from irresponsible mortgage lending practices from 2003 to 2007 and the resultant and reactionary tightening of mortgage funds. Dyson simply calls it a “lending debacle.”

At the same time,he says, there is a large and growing backlog of buyers who want to buy–and are just waiting for reassurance that the real estate market has really bottomed, or is at least close to that point.

See below (and stay tuned for a radical solution):

I often turn to Billy Taylor, financial services guru at San Diego’s Villa Sotheby’s, when I want to hear the latest scoop on the mortgage market. Just last week, for example, Billy shared that Chase had moved out of the jumbo mortgage market entirely. That leaves a mere handful of lenders who will even consider doing jumbo loans, which help fuel much of the mortgaged luxury real estate market.

Below, Billy shares with us his latest assessment of the mortgage market and how it is impacting real estate sales:

As a real estate professional with more than 25 years experience I often get this question:

“When will the real estate market be coming back?”

Well, I don’t think the real estate market ever left us; it was the financing that left us!

There are many people looking to buy or sell real estate. The phones are still ringing and open house traffic is growing. I receive calls everyday inquiring about loans and real estate available.

It is NOT Consumer demand that is missing; it’s the financing programs available to fulfill those sales transactions that is missing.

Overnight after August 10th 2007 the real estate loan liquidity simply dried up. The secondary market on Wall Street stopped buying Jumbo loans,(those over $417,000), and has yet to come back into the market.

Jumbo loans, which had been 60% of the loan market in California prior to last summer of 2007, are now about 10% of the market. Congress’ loan liquidity solution of raising the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan limits to $697,000 in San Diego, for example, has NOT been the solution many had hoped it would have been. This is mostly because the interest rates delivered were NOT conforming rates as suggested they would be. Rather, they more like a half percentage point higher–and with new restrictions that made them nearly impossible to be approved.

This new jumbo loan category is called Agency Conforming and is nothing more than an old Jumbo loan, but with stricter guidelines and higher pricing. Jumbo pricing above $697,000 to $5,000,000 is even higher in pricing and also faces difficulty in getting approved.

The lifeblood to any market is liquidity and a real estate market would die without financing. In Mexico real estate loans are rare and generally require 50% or more as a down payment. Unfortunately that is why most of the population in Mexico doesn’t own real estate. So a lack of liquidity for real estate loans in the United States, and particularly jumbo loans, has restricted home ownership this past year.

We in the U.S. have had liberal financing available for real estate which has allowed millions to own homes. And therefore an abundance of real estate liquidity has allowed millions to own homes and enjoy a higher standard of living for themselves and their families.

But the lenders have all found underwriting religion and their financial gravy train has derailed. Programs that once fueled the 20% annual growth rates in Southern California real estate have been deleted. Stated income loans, which were probably the most abused offering of the market, is quickly disappearing as lawmaker’s line up to kill it completely. Second trust deeds which allowed lower down payments are rarely offered, and if they are, the pricing is prohibitive. In a word the lending guidelines are “TIGHT”

So where does this leave us and where am I going with this editorial?

Although my commentary is a bit dire I want to make the comment that all is NOT lost. There are still many banks willing to make loans. But it must be said the path to closing the deal is narrower!

Everyone would love to know when the bottom of this market will be reached. Which was the original premise for me writing this commentary?

I have the belief that TIME has nothing to do with when a bottom in a real estate market is reached. I believe the bottom will be reached when the INCOMES of buyers support the ASSETS FINANCED. And unfortunately this was not the case for many of the loans funded in the past five years.

That being said, I believe the real estate owner and investor has to be working with the best and most informed bankers, real estate brokers and real estate agents if they are to be successful in this market. The days of every loan being approved and every transaction closing is over. Sellers, Buyer’s and Agents should be partnering with their banker before a transaction goes into escrow–NOT AFTER. Success in real estate takes more planning and upfront work than in previous markets.

If there is any way I can assist you in your mortgage placement, please feel free to give me a call at 619-665-8006.

–Billy Taylor
Villa Sotheby’s International Realty
Del Mar, CA 92014

by Roberta Murphy

Ed McMahon may wonder what else in new in defaulted real estate, but yesterday, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Service reported that even prime jumbo loans are starting to buckle.

Over a period of just one month–from June to July, 2008–jumbo loans originated in 2006 saw mortgage delinquencies rise 13.2 percent, while 2007 delinquencies rose 7.3 percent. Overall, mortgage delinquencies in the luxury real estate market are relatively low, with prime jumbos originating in 2006 reporting a serious delinquency rate of just 2.48 percent.

(For a more detailed report, go to: Prime Jumbos Showing Strain: S&P : Housing Wire)

It also appears that originations in the luxury market may be tightening. Thursday evening, Billy Taylor with Villa Sotheby’s International Realty in Del Mar, whispered that Chase Mortgage is pulling out of jumbo loan originations (at least at the broker level).

My prediction? There will be much more discussion about creative and seller financing in the months ahead. If financing is required for the purchase of a luxury home, it may be the seller who provides it.

Finally, stay tuned for Bob Dyson’s radical mortgage rescue program that could stabilize the real estate market very quickly–and that is quickly gaining prominent political support….

by Roberta Murphy

Yes, there are plenty of luxury home foreclosures in California–and you can now search them whenever you wish.

When in San Francisco last month for the Inman Connect conference, I was at last able to meet the foreclosure wizards at Foreclosure Radar–and make a decision to go with them.

We have long been searching for a comprehensive foreclosure search tool to offer the readers of our San Diego real estate blog. I had been to the Foreclosure Radar site, was impressed with its features, but wondered how they could be integrated for our readers searching for foreclosure information.

The problem was solved in San Francisco. We can now offer the most comprehensive pre-foreclosure, auction sale, foreclosure and REO search available–at least for the state of California. Now you can see available foreclosures in Beverly Hills, Brentwood, Palo Alto, Rancho Santa Fe, La Jolla, Coronado, Bel Air, Newport Beach, Carmel, Atherton, Ross, Belvedere (perhaps)…..

Finally, you can search for uber luxury homes, estates and mansions in foreclosure. Nothing is held back:-)

Enjoy your search!

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by Roberta Murphy

If this is the worst real estate market (for sellers) in recent history, then surely it creates some of the best buying opportunities of a lifetime as well.

We are seeing smart money aggressively buying in our San Diego real estate market, and hear reports of the same elsewhere. The properties are being bought as fix-and-flippers or are being held as longer term rentals.

We receive inquiries about these homes almost daily; but more recently, we are being consulted about strategies for buying luxury homes at bargain prices. These buyers may not have to sell their existing home to buy another, or are open to exchange possibilities.

Below are 7 strategies we use to help our luxury home buyers (and others) get some of the best luxury bargains on the market.

1. Study Market Time: Luxury homes in general may take longer to sell because of pricing, custom features and a more limited pool of buyers. But that doesn’t mean sellers are any less motivated to move on with their lives. At one time, we thought little of $million-plus homes sitting on the market for 90 days or more. These days, we seek buying opportunities if a home has been on the market over 60 days and are seeing some heavy price discounting if days on market goes over 90 days.
2. Check Tax Records and other Sources: Is there more debt on the home than what it is worth? Has a Notice of Default been filed that would indicate a looming foreclosure? If so and if this is a home of interest for our buyer, we submit an offer contingent on the successful negotiation of a short sale (where the lender sells the property for less than what is owed). In this case, either we or professional negotiators deal with the lender(s) to reach the best possible price for our buyer.
3. Did Owners Pay Cash or Have They Owned Their Home for Longer than 10 Years? These sellers may be in a position to sell at a discount or may be motivated to do so due to life transitions or other investment opportunities. They may also be open to owner-financing for all or part of the home mortgage.
4. Are You Open to Remodeling? Homes sold in as-is condition are more likely than others to sell at a substantial discount. Owners, especially when the home has been on the market for some time, are often overwhelmed with the thought of remodeling and updating–and fearful that their decor choices will not suit potential buyers. Especially in the uber luxury home market, older or outdated homes are sometimes sold at land value.
5. Foreclosoure Sales: The f-word (foreclosure) is occurring even in the luxury home market. Highly leveraged homes purchased in the last few years are more frequently ending up on the courthouse steps. Foreclosure purchases, which require cash and carry no disclosures or guarantees, offer both great potential for profit–and dire dangers for the uninformed. Bidding should be non-emotional and it is best to have a professional bidding for you–but only after thorough-as-possible research has been done regarding the home’s condition, its history and resale potential. Cracked slabs, structural defects and boundary line encroachments are unwelcome surprises.
6. Home Exchanges: This is a rather novel strategy for those trying to sell their luxury home in a bloody market. Life transitions encourage luxury homeowners to make moves. Empty-nesters may wish to relocate from their large estate to something equally posh but far less demanding in upkeep. Others may have expanding families that crave acreage, pools, tennis courts or equestrian facilities. In the Southern California market, Owner-Broker Bob Dyson and Villa Sotheby’s International Realty have set up a property exchange platform that allows homeowners to directly exchange properties and ownership. It is a tactic that helps to support neighborhood values and removes many of the pressures involved in having a home on the market for an extended period of time.
7. If the property you want is listed, have your agent check the other real estate agent’s listing history. If that agent tends to have listings on the market for a long time, you may wish to lower your offer. On the other hand, if the agent prices properties aggressively and has short “days on market,” you may consider coming in near to or at list price. You will likely find the listing is already priced at or below market to attract multiple offers.

A combination of patience, perseverance and the ability to move quickly will serve all astute buyers of real estate these days, but the greatest potential of all may lie in the luxury real estate market where replacement value could far exceed the purchase price.

by Roberta Murphy

Zillow founder Rich Barton loves placing industries inside glass houses (most notably in real estate), and may now become the cause of painful overexposure (or welcome relief) for industry executives.

It seems he just unveiled GlassDoor, which will reveal salary reports, compensation figures and reviews from employees.

GlassDoor, based in Sausalito, CA, currently has around 2,000 salary reports from over 250 companies along with a current reports from around 1300 employees of these companies. In order to lure the curious, the site is offering free peeks into salaries and employee reviews for Google, Inc., Yahoo, Inc, Microsoft, and Cisco Systems, Inc.

I don’t yet know whether the site will remain free or become one based on paid subscriptions. We might imagine that if GlassDoor is sticky enough and has a gazillion visitors, advertising might pay its way.

According to the San Jose Business Journal, who released the story, GlassDoor will be reviewing salaries and reports prior to posting.

Current spotlight?

Eric Schmidt, Google CEO, has an employee approval rating of 83 percent, while Cisco CEO John Chambers scores 93 percent. This may prove to be one of the hottest water coolers around.

Kudos for the coup, Rich Barton!

by Roberta Murphy

Forecl—–

It’s a word softly whispered when luxury homeowners in luxe communities like Palm Beach (33480), Beverly Hills (90210), Greenwich (06831) and Rancho Santa Fe (92067) discuss their local real estate markets.

Real estate prices have been declining in many of these markets throughout the country, and some of the heavily mortgage homes are ending up as foreclosure sales. The most prominent foreclosure victim of late is Ed McMahon, whose $5 million Beverly Hills mansion was recently lost to foreclosure.

This morning, CNNMoney reports that three of the richest US zip codes saw nasty declines in home prices for the three-month period ending April 30, when compared with the prior three months. The three biggest losers?

1. Palm Beach, Fla saw a 38 percent decline in median home prices during that period, while

2. Wayzata, Minn (55391) slid 28 percent, and

3. Greenwich, Conn. dropped 15 percent.

Much of the price decline can be attributed to inflated mortgage fallout, but another transition is also contributing to the declines: Downsizing. Many of the large luxury residence owners are baby boomers who are seeking to downsize into a more convenient and connected urban lifestyle–and are doing so in growing numbers.

Not all luxury zip codes and communities are in the tank, though, according to the CNN article. For the 12 month period ending March 31, prices actually rose 18 percent in the upscale Kenilworth (60043) communiity, just outside Chicago. Other ritzy gainers included Medina, WA (home to Bill Gates just outside Seattle) with a 9 percent increase, and a 5 percent climb for Atherton, one of Silicon Valley’s suburban crown jewels.

by Roberta Murphy

I really want to talk about the effect petroleum costs will have on real estate, but first wish to tell a little story:

My grandgather, Adolph Michelson emigrated at the age of 7 with his family from Norway to Deadwood, South Dakota. It required a long, hard journey by steamship. train and wagon to arrive at their eventual home in the steep hills above Deadwood. It was there that they lived with other immigrants and Indians, sharing magnificent views and boot camp workouts as they trudged up and down that steep, steep hill to get to town for work, school, food and other supplies.

Views be damned. This was where the poor people lived.

As soon as the Michelson family could afford to do so, they moved their big family into a home in town, where shopping, school and employment were within easy walking distance. Their decision to move was not based on home features, the quality of the stove, or the number of closets–or even neighborhood amenities. It was based on that single and most basic real estate dynamic:

LOCATION

It is only since the advent of sprawling suburbias and each family having multiple automobiles that we strayed from distinct town and country living. The wealthy may have had homes in both locations, but the average family lived near employment . There were no school buses (or video games because kids had to hike through miles of rain and snow to get to school each day) and gasoline stations were pretty rare at the turn of the that other century. Which all leads me to wonder….

What might be the top priority for the home of the future when gas prices reach $6, $8, $10 or even $12 per gallon?

How about the radical choice of living walking-close to employment, shopping and schools? Or living near a bus stop or transit center where one can commute for work, school and fun?

I am eying real estate differently these days–and am coming around to my ancestor’s way of thinking. Location trumps views, walkable sidewalks trump big back yards and a bicycle pump beats a gas pump–at least for kids who drive or are driven to school (ever seen the long lines of mini vans idling outside our schools at arrival and departure times–or high school parking lots?). Might a more urban lifestyle offer some solutions that would allow for a saner lifestyle?

I am also wondering if Carol Lloyd’s prediction of suburbs turning into Slumburbia might also come true–sooner rather than later due to rising fuel costs? In her SF Gate article, she notes, “In Europe, where the cities never died, the suburbs have long been the homes of last resort for the poor and the marginalized.” This is already occurring in and around sprawling urban centers like Houston, where home prices in and close to downtown Houston are selling at a premium, while homes in once-affluent suburbs are selling at prices far below replacement costs. It is a scenario being repeated all over the country, with slightly different configurations along the coasts.

In San Diego County, where I live and work, we are anecdotally seeing a surge of buyers seeking to live within walking distance of restaurants, theaters, dry cleaners and food or farmer’s markets. They no longer want to battle freeway gridlock, and would happily trade their road warrior status for the peace of riding a train to work. They are also seeking more open communities, where neighbors stroll by and greet one another, where not so much of life is lived in and for cars–or behind mortgaged garage doors.

I am so, so tempted to join them….

by Roberta Murphy

Call this a geeky rant. Call it a blonde tirade. Call it what you want, but I just don’t know what to do about diverse databases.

I think I have them coming out the Wazoo.

If you came here seeking luxury news, you may want to click away and come back tomorrow. Right now, I am trying to sort out a database problem that honestly keeps me awake at night.

You see, I have been collecting names, addresses, email addresses and property preferences from people for centuries. And if there were a way my databases of information could talk to each other, I could be the supreme Yentl of real estate in Southern California–or the whole world.

My problem? SOAR Solutions, which for years reliably sent property information to hundreds of clients, was sold to HouseValues, who ostensibly does the same thing but charges a king’s ransom to do so. At the same time, clients who signed into SearchPoint with my ancient Realigent site, are listed there and are also receiving property updates from me.

Then there was Top Producer, which held all the contact information for existing clients–along with their birthdays and wine preferences. And now I have an account with 1ParkPlace, which also sends out listing information to clients and maintains another database.

The real problem?

None of these databases talk to one another–and I think it’s a deliberate conspiracy, HouseValues will release only the client’s name, address, telephone and email address. Forget about search parameters. They hold that information hostage and continue to charge me out the yingyang for the privilege of doing so. I would like to migrate this information to 1ParkPlace, but no can do.

Guess those tasks will have to be done one by one, keystroke by keystroke.

Then there’s the database sitting over at Realigent that is fully 8 years old. Many of these searchers have been with me since the last century. Those, too, will have to be migrated one by one, keystroke by keystroke.

The problem could probably be solved if I were an enterprise level business doing gazillions of transactions per day. If that were the case, I would just call the database gurus at ANTs Software and they could use their cool plugin and make databases like Oracle, IBM, Sybase and Microsoft relate, talk and migrate to one or the other. The Ants Compatibility Server (ACS), fortunately and unfortunately, is whizbang technology for the big guys and ANTs will probably rule the world of databases some day, but are of little help to me now.

In the meantime, I think someone could make a modest royal ransom if they could solve the Realtor’s dilemma with databases and set us free from those vendors who hold us hostage. If software could be written that would encompass not only basic information, but also our real estate client’s search parameters and wine preferences, the world’s real estate crisis might be solved.

And just for grins, remember this classic Super Bowl 2000 Commercial?

by Roberta Murphy

It appears that even the luxury real estate market will not fully escape the financial ravages that are taking down less-expensive neighborhoods.

Housing Wire asks: Has REO gone jumbo? To find out, they consulted with Integrated Asset Services, LLC in Colorado to see if foreclosures are moving up the real estate food chain. And though not all properties with loans in excess of the the conforming $417,000 are luxury homes, it appears that an increasing number of residences in that loftier lending arena are heading to short sale or foreclosure. In California, for example, IAS and Housing Wire saw 102 REO’s sell for more than $417,000 during April, compared to just 13 in April, 2007.

Anecdotally, we have seen a spike this past year in San Diego luxury homes that are closing as short sales (where more is owed on the property than what it is worth), or which end up as foreclosures and REO’s (real estate owned bank properties). We have also seen that it takes lenders far longer to reach an agreeable sales price compared to smaller loans–and that may be understandable.

On one hand, more money is at stake and greater care must be taken in reaching a fair valuation; on the other, carrying costs (taxes, insurance, maintenance, security and HOA fees) run far higher than ordinary REO’s. And that those are bills most lenders and services do not want to shoulder.

In a recent transaction in coastal Encinitas Ranch, Washington Mutual required two appraisals and took almost four months processing time before reaching an agreed-upon sales price. And during that time, foreclosure sale was delayed twice. The original loan amount was $1.2 million and the final sales price was $880,000. It was a major hit for the lender/investor , but costs would surely have been greater if this Encinitas home had gone to foreclosure.

We are currently involved with two other sellers who have loans exceeding $1 million and whose custom homes could end up as foreclosures if Countrywide and First Franklin investors cannot come up with pricing that reflects current San Diego market realities. Neither home is coastal (which would help prop up valuation) and neither have area comparable sales that would support pricing anywhere near what is owed on these homes.

Outside of our San Diego real estate practice with Villa Sotheby’s International Realty in Del Mar, we are hearing whispers that there will be more luxury short sales and REO’s before the real estate market recovers. And out of the confusion and delays in disposing of these luxury properties will be opportunities that luxury investors have been long awaiting.

And even the ultra-luxury real estate market appears to be experiencing some correction. In 2006, we wrote about Donald Trump’s luxury estate in Palm Beach being offered at $125 million. Recent reports say it sold at just $100 million.

What may have been painful for The Donald would have been a coup for the lucky buyer. I guess every market has silver linings–for someone.