Newspapers and Real Estate Bubble Rant

by Roberta Murphy

Headline settingSan Diego Vacancy Rates the Highest Since ˜95

headlines the San Diego Union Tribune. Those are words that should should send shivers down the spine of San Diego real estate investors, homeowners, home sellers, and potential home buyers throughout the county. But smart home buyers and savvy real estate investors should know by now to read between the lines and below the headlines.

If we take the time to read the article, we immediately discover that the author is referring only to apartments complex vacancies in San Diego, not the enire rental market. The reasons for that decline include new construction competititon, failed condo conversions that are being returned to the rental market, and competition from homeowners who are adding their properties to the rental pool.

Private homes and condos, of course, are generally preferred over rental apartment units due to neighborhood, school and privacy issues. Hence, the private real estate rental market might likely be faring better than apartment counterparts.

None of that bothers me as much as the reported statistic:

Apartment vacancy rates in San Diego will stand at 4.5 percent at the end of March.

Huh?

Ill admit that these vacancy rates were ridiculously low last fall when they dropped to 1.8 percent and the current 4.5 percent represents a steep increase. But a 4.5 vacancy rate ought to spell r-e-l-i-e-f for many rental seekers, because San Diego at last has a normal vacancy rate.

And this market relief just might bring workers back into the county to live. Many had moved out becuase of tight housing supplies. But with long commute times and the rising cost of gasoline, it just might make sense to return to the San Diego paradise.

And finally, San Diegos luxury rental market is as busy as ever. We receive numerous calls each week from people seeking vacation rentals, long term rentals and rental investments. It is a market that is far from dead, but apparently not worthy of a headline.